Tornado Risk 4/2/2024
[cid:27a2f1f2-fb17-46a1-9519-1592e1472611]
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly
including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered
over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee
Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and
as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central
third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave
feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across
the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does.
By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over
the Illinois vicinity.
At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is
progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting
northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding
northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated
with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper
Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest
late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east
as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania,
though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern
Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming
over the Northeast.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards
severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the
Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should
reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though
potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across
the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east
to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence.
As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves
into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi
and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur
during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat
difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of
cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the
ample destabilization expected in combination with very
strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is
evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and
several significant tornadoes.
The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of
intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the
spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially
reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far
western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk
into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise
threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the
Carolinas late.
...Florida/Georgia/southeastern Alabama and perhaps into the western
Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is expected to increase late in the period
from the Florida Panhandle northeastward, ahead of the advancing
cold front. With indications of potentially cellular mode with this
convection, concerns for a very late-period increase in tornado
potential exist, given background shear profiles supportive of
updraft rotation. While somewhat uncertain at this point, have
expanded 5% tornado probability substantially eastward/southeastward
to include this potential.
James Hale, ARM-P, ARM-E
Risk Control Consultant
County Risk Sharing Authority
209 East State Street
Columbus, OH 43215
614.246.1630 FAX 614.220.0209
“ The leader in providing Ohio Counties with exceptional value, service, and protection of assets.”
